Russia has placed thousands of troops along the Ukrainian border as an act of aggression.
What the Kremlin is doing suggests that they are preparing for war. They are moving military equipment and medical units to the front lines, and Joe Biden said: Russia had more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine. Talk between Russia and the United States along with allies hasn’t led to any solutions so far.
On February 15 Russia announced that it has planned to “partially pull back troops,” which was a sign that Vladimir Putin is willing to ease up. But the situation hasn’t changed in the following days. Instead, Putin has added up more troops near the Ukrainian Border. Joe Biden is very sure that Russia will invade Ukraine within a few days or weeks. They are likely to attack Ukraine’s capital, Biden said. And the bigger issues that led to this standoff haven’t been worked out.
The conflict is about what will happen to Ukraine.
Russia also wants to use Ukraine to try to reclaim its power in Europe and the world, as well as to make sure that the legacy of Vladimir Putin will live on for a long time. Putin can invade Ukraine for its benefit and to fulfill its desire to gain power in the UK which could lead to heavy losses to Ukraine like civilian deaths and economic instability.
The US and Russia have drawn a lot of red lines that help people understand what’s at stake. A list of demands was sent to the United States by Russia. Some of them were not good ideas for the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Putin said to NATO not to include Ukraine in this organization and stop spreading to the East. He also said that NATO should stop sending troops to countries that joined after 1997, which would make Europe’s security and geopolitical alignment go back decades.
They are “a Russian attempt not only to get people to care about Ukraine but to rethink the security architecture in Europe,” said Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNA, a research and analysis group in Arlington, Virginia.
As expected, the US and NATO did not agree with those demands that Russia brought up.
They both know that Ukraine isn’t going to join NATO any time soon. There were some well-known Americans at the end of the Cold War who said that NATO should not have moved near Russia’s borders in the first place. That isn’t true, though. NATO’s open-door policy says that countries can choose their own security alliances. Giving in to Putin’s demands would give the Kremlin the power to veto NATO’s decisions, which would make the continent less safe.
The world is now waiting to see what Putin will do next. An invasion isn’t a sure thing. Moscow still denies that it plans to invade, even as it warns of a “military-technical response” to talks that have been going on for a long time. But if there was a war, it could be very bad for Ukraine, and it could have a lot of different effects on the rest of Europe and the whole West. So, it is not untrue if we say that the World is on the edge.
The roots of this current issue between Russia and Ukraine are embedded in Soviet Union Breakup.
Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world at the time it got separated from the Soviet Union. The United States and Russia helped Ukraine to get rid of its nuclear inventory. Ukraine gave back the nuclear arsenal to Russia in an agreement to protect Ukraine and not to attack it.
This agreement was put on the test in 2014 when Pro-Russians invaded eastern Ukraine and Killed many people. Instead of backing up Ukraine, Russia took the side of the invaders.
Protesting against its pro-Russian President, Viktor Yanukovych led him to stand down. This led to Russia’s attack. Diplomats were sent the US to these Protest which fired up Putin’s Anger
President Barack Obama was afraid to make things worse with Russia. So, he took a long time to organize a diplomatic response in Europe and didn’t give Ukraine offensive weapons right away.
There is also the idea of a post-Soviet Europe that is fueling today’s fights.
Putin has been very interested in regaining some of the power that was lost when the Soviet Union broke up. Ukraine is an important part of this whole scenario. Ukraine and Russia were “one people,” or at least would have been in the West had not intervened, Putin said. That has caused a “wall” to be built between the two.
Ukraine isn’t joining NATO in the future. Russia has been a threat for a long time according to Joe Biden. The country is the fourth-largest recipient of military aid from the United States.
People in Russia and Ukraine know that Ukraine won’t be a part of NATO. Ruslan Bortnik, the head of a Ukrainian think tank, said that. But Ukraine joined NATO without a formal vote.
That’s why Putin doesn’t like Ukraine’s relationship with the EU and NATO, even though Russian aggression has a lot to do with that.
As far back as 2008, when President Bush said that Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO, Putin has been angry about the idea.
When Steven Pifer was ambassador to Ukraine under Bill Clinton from 1998 to 2000, he said, “That was a big mistake.” There was a lot that made the Russians crazy. It made people in Ukraine and Georgia want things that didn’t happen. There was a lot to think about when it came to expanding, so
Neither Ukraine nor any other country can join the alliance unless all 30 other members agree. Many countries have opposed Ukraine because it does not meet the alliance’s rules on democracy and the rule of law. Trying to join an alliance that was not going to accept it, while irritating a potential rival next door, without any protection from NATO. This has put Ukraine in a very bad situation.
In this case, Russia is threatening Ukraine for no good reason at all: People in Russia and Ukraine are still fighting. This is a continuation of the fight that began in 2014. Recently, There have been a lot of political changes in Ukraine. These changes also help to explain why Putin may think now is the right time to invade Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian who played a president on TV and then became the president of Ukraine in 2019, is one of those changes.
It’s not just the other thing you might remember Zelensky for. He said during his campaign that he would “reboot” peace talks to end the conflict in the East of Ukraine, which would include talks with Vladimir Putin. In the same way, Russia may have thought it could get something out of this. Russia saw Zelensky as a political novice who might be more willing to listen to Russia’s point of view.
The 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements are what Russia wants Zelensky to do. They would bring the pro-Russian regions back into Ukraine, but they would also be a “Trojan horse” for Moscow to have control and influence. No Ukrainian president could agree to those terms, so Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has turned to the West for help. He has said that he wants to join NATO.
There is a big change in the public’s view on joining Western groups like the EU and NATO. That may have made Russia think that it has used up all of its political and diplomatic power to get Ukraine back into the group. They think that if they don’t, military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine will get even more intense and more sophisticated if they don’t do something now. Sarah Pagung, a member of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said this.
Putin did this again in the spring of 2021 when he built up forces and equipment near parts of the border with Ukraine again.
The new Biden administration paid attention to the troop buildup, which led to a planned meeting between the two leaders. Russian troops on the border began leaving a few days after that. Putin’s view of the United States has changed, too, experts say. It looks like Putin thinks that the messy Afghanistan withdrawal and the turmoil in the US are signs of weakness.
Putin may also think that the West is split up about the US’s role in the world. In spite of the distrust that built up during President Trump’s time in office, Vice President Biden is still trying to get the transatlantic alliance back together after that. That messy Afghanistan withdrawal and the nuclear submarine deal that Biden announced with the UK and Australia that France didn’t know about have caused a lot of rifts in Europe.
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Diplomacy hasn’t made any progress so far. After a few months in office, the Biden administration talked about having a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia. That now seems out of the question.
It doesn’t seem like the White House is giving up on a diplomatic solution, even though it’s preparing sanctions against Russia, sending money to Ukraine, and increasing the number of American military bases in Eastern Europe. European heads of state have been meeting with Putin one-on-one for the last few weeks. This is why.
Late in the last year, the White House began to step up its diplomatic connections with Russia.
In December, Russia gave Washington a list of “legally binding security guarantees,” which included things like a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership, and asked for written answers from the United States. In January, US and Russian officials tried to work out a deal in Geneva, but they didn’t work. It was at the end of January that the United States responded directly to Russia’s threats.
In that response, the US and NATO said they didn’t want any deal on NATO membership. But leaked documents show that there could be new arms control agreements and more transparency about where NATO weapons and troops are stationed in Eastern Europe.
A lot of people in Russia were not happy about it. On February 17, Moscow said the US had not met its main demands and was making things worse with new ones.
There are a lot of different ways that Russia could invade Ukraine. They could send more troops to the breakaway areas in eastern Ukraine, seizing strategic areas and blockade Ukraine’s access to waterways, or even start a full-scale war, with Moscow marching on Kyiv in an attempt to retake the country. Any of it could be very bad, but the bigger the operation, the worse it will be.
A full-scale war to take over all of Ukraine would be something Europe hasn’t seen in a very long time. It could be urban warfare, like on the streets of Kyiv, or airstrikes on cities. It would have a huge impact on people’s lives, including a refugee crisis.
Such an invasion would force Russia to move into areas that are very angry with it, so it would have to move there.
That makes it more likely that there will be a long-term resistance, which could even be backed by the US. An invasion could turn into an occupation. In the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, Melinda Haring is the deputy director of the Eurasia Center. “The sad truth is that Russia could take as much of Ukraine as it wants, but it can’t hold it,” she said.
Vladimir Putin has put himself in a tight spot, which makes it hard to think of Russia going back. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and it doesn’t rule out the possibility of a diplomatic solution that gives Putin enough cover to declare victory even if the West doesn’t meet all of his demands at the same time. Neither Russia nor the United States can rule out that this standoff might go on for a long time, with Ukraine in the middle and under long-term threat from Russia.
As the political editor and CEO of the English-language Kyiv Independent, Oleksiy Sorokin says that “for many Ukrainians, war is a way of life.”
As he said, “We’re used to having Russia on our tail.” “I think many Ukrainians are used to it,” he said.
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